Terrorism Research and Public Policy by Clark McCauley

Author:Clark McCauley [McCauley, Clark]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: History, Military, General, Political Science
ISBN: 9781136292514
Google: -NzsoEKJk2EC
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2012-11-12T01:17:05+00:00

Explaining Individual Processes of Decline

Ross and Gurr [1989] develop a comparative political analysis of the declining incidence of domestic terrorism in Canada and the United States. Their argument is based on an assessment of terrorist capabilities, which they distinguish as coercive or political. Preemption and deterrence are government measures that destroy the terrorists’ coercive capabilities. Political capabilities, on the other hand, diminish through ‘burn-out’ (declining group commitment) and ‘backlash’ (reduced popular support). These analytical distinctions are helpful in understanding the process of decline, particularly as they suggest further questions about the interrelationships among external and internal variables. For example, what effect does government coercion have on the underground’s cohesion and legitimacy, and which are its key political resources? What conditions lead to loss of commitment among the group members or to popular disaffection? When do terrorist groups perceive ‘backlash’? Does the withdrawal of popular support that symbolizes decline precede or follow the government’s mobilization for pre-emption or deterrence? Are disunity and ‘burn-out’ synonymous?

The conceptual formulation I propose focuses on a different set of variables and is designed to apply to a wider range of cases. It emphasizes the strategy of extremist organizations. The decline of terrorism appears to be related to the interplay of three factors: the government response to terrorism (which is not restricted to preemption or deterrence), the strategic choices of the terrorist organization, and its organizational resources. The government role can be decisive, but often in non-obvious ways. Attempts to defeat a terrorist underground by destroying its organizational structure, removing leaders, causing large-scale attrition, or blocking recruitment do not always have the same effect. Reforms that decrease the utility of terrorism or positive inducements that encourage individual defections can be as important as the deployment of coercive resources. Decisive defeats are rare in the absence of other contributing factors, such as organizational disintegration. Yet disunity does not necessarily signal the end of terrorism or reflect declining commitment. Disagreements over strategy are common. Members can defect to rival groups or establish a new, more militant organization. Splits and mergers are a form of propagation of terrorism. Power struggles among generations of leaders (especially if the original leadership is imprisoned) and prior patterns of cleavage among supporters, whether states or ethnic groups, also reduce cohesiveness. Strategic reversals may result from dependence on states whose support is withdrawn or sanctuaries that are lost, the appearance of more attractive or justifiable alternatives, or a collective perception of failure. Possibly cycles of terrorism exist. An escalation in destructiveness may precipitate decline, as extreme terrorist activity provokes government intervention, alienates or frightens sympathizers, and generates internal disagreement.

A few examples illustrate these complex interactions. Relevant cases include domestic terrorism in Western and Third World democracies, including both police and military responses (an important difference between the United States and Canada). International terrorist campaigns are also discussed.

Domestic terrorism has not posed a significant threat in the United States, but in the late 1960s it seemed plausible that offshoots of the civil rights protest movement might be capable of serious violence.

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